US GDP (Q/Q) (Advance - 1st reading)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/01/26

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 3.0
Prior: 3.2
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.4 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.4 [BUY]

If US GDP Annualized comes out at 2.6% or less ( -0.4 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at +3.4 or higher ( +0.4 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 35 pips.

Based on 77 estimates, median estimate is 3.0% and the average estimate is 2.94%. The highest estimate is 3.8% (one estimate), then 3.7% (one estimate), 3.5% (two estimates), then 3.4% (one estimate), then 3.3% (three estimates), 3.2% (7 estimates), 3.1% (six estimates) and 3.0% (18 estimates).

The lowest estimate is 2.2% (one estimate), then 2.4% (one estimate), then 2.5% (five estimates), 2.6% (three estimates), 2.7% (eight estimates), 2.8% (10 estimates), and finally 2.9% (10 votes). One standard deviation is 0.28, slightly lower from 0.34 last time (three months ago).

Note: We will also have CA CPI coming out at the same time so you can trade both reports separately (independently) on their respective currency pairs.

This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with a such deviation. In fact, I would expect a decent price action even with more aggressive +/- 0.3 triggers.

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