Australian CPI Trimmed Mean (Q/Q)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/01/30

Release Time: 19:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 0.5
Prior: 0.4
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.2 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [BUY]

Unfortunately there are three different CPI Q/Q versions coming out, and they are not released at the same time.

Because we don't know for sure which one will come out first, we do know based on past performance MOST LIKELY it will Australian CPI Trimmed Mean (Q/Q). If it's not going to be that, then my SECOND choice based on past performance would be CPI (Q/Q) (but it could be any one of the CPI reports).

The overall stratagy is to set up the triggers on both of these reports (or even all three Q/Q reports), and act on the one that comes first without waiting for the other one.

If you use SNW Elite, set it up this way:
1 - Set up AU CPI Trimmed Q/Q as in MRRM Report Group 1 and set it as a Primary, and then enter triggers.
2 - Set up AU CPI (Q/Q) in MRRM Report Group 2 and Primary, and enter triggers.
3 - Set up same mouse click actions for both groups, MRRM Group 1 *AND* MRRM Group 2. At the end of the mouse click sequence in each Group, add an additional click to click on "Hyper Click Enabled" (big green button, also known as Panic Stop) so when the first report is released the last click assigned to it will essentially disable the other report. Also set up no trade click on Panic Stop so when the second report is released and still deviates, you are not late for the party because even though the first one was a no trade, it could still cause a price action, especially if it was just shy by 0.1 to hit the trigger.

SNW Professional has somewhat easier set up. Just enter triggers on both (or even all three) and set up same mouse click action on each and every one, with additional click on Panic stop at the end of the sequence so when the next report is released, you don't get clicks again. Also, set up no trade clicks on Panic Stop so when next one is released, it will no longer work as you would be late to the party so you don't really want to enter.

Still pay attention to the price action and be prepared to abort.

AU CPI Trimmed Mean (Q/Q): Based on 24 estimates, median estimate is 0.50% and mean (average) estimate is 0.46%. The highest estimate is 0.8% (one vote), then 0.6% (two votes), 0.5% (9 votes), 0.4% (10 estimates) and finally the lowest estimate is 0.3% (two estimates). One standard deviation is +/- 0.10%.

AU CPI (Q/Q): Based on 29 estimates, median estimate is 0.7% and the average estimate is 0.74%. The highest estimate is 1.4% (one vote), then 1.0% (one vote), 0.8% (nine estimates), then 0.7% (15 estimates), 0.5% (two votes) and finally 0.4% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.16%.

AU CPI Weighted Median (Q/Q): Based on 20 estimates, median estimate is 0.4% and the mean (average) estimate is 0.45%. The highest estimate is 0.6% (three votes), then 0.5% (6 estimates), 0.4% (eight estimates), and finally the lowest estimate is 0.3% (three votes). One standard deviation is +/- 0.09%.


If the Australian Trimmed CPI Q/Q comes out at 0.3 or less ( -0.2 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at 0.7 or higher ( +0.2 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by about 35 pips.

If the Australian CPI (Q/Q) comes out at 0.4 or less ( -0.3 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by about 35 pips. If it comes out at 1.0 or higher ( +0.3 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by about 35 pips.

As stated above, there are a few variations of this report coming out almost (but not exactly) at the same time, and of course it matters if they conflict or support each other. Moreover, it is very hard to say which one is the most important. Therefore, I would trade the very first one that is released.

Again, there is a real possibility for a conflict or that the number you are focused on would be released a few milliseconds later comparing to the others. Additionally, sometimes Australian reports are leaked a few seconds before they are officially released to major news providers.

As always, be careful with the CPI numbers. Sometimes you might see a weird price action.

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