US FOMC Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/01/31

Report name: US FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max
Release Time: 14:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 1.50
Prior: 1.50
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means a 25 bp cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means a 25 bp hike)

There are 93 estimates, and all 93 economists expect no change this time. Median estimate is 1.50 and the average estimate is 1.50%. One standard deviation is 0.00% - obviously.

If they cut to 1.25% or lower ( -0.25 deviation in this case), it would be a great sell signal on USD/JPY but this scenario will not happen.

If there is no change in interest rates so it would stay at 1.50% level ( 0.00 deviation in this case), since everyone expects it to happen, it's a no trade.

Of course if they hike to 1.75% or higher (+0.25 deviation), it would be a great buy signal on USD/JPY but it's not likely to happen.

So basically you can skip this report this month as most likely it will be a no trade. However, once a blue moon we see surprising changes in interest rates even if no one expects it to happen so if you have spare time, you can always set up triggers, just in case.

Additionally, I post this information to avoid questions why I didn't mention this report this month (although in the future I may just skip it without mentioning if there is no split in consensus). Well, I didn't forget but I guess it's not worthy your time this month.

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