US ISM Manufacturing

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/02/01

Release Time: 10:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 58.6
Prior: 59.7
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -2.0 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +2.0 [BUY]

If US ISM Manufacturing comes out at 56.6 or less ( -2.0 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 15 pips or more. If it comes out at 60.6 or better ( +2.0 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 15 pips or better.

Based on 73 estimates, median estimate is 58.6 and the average estimate is 58.7. The highest estimate is 61.0 (one estimate), and then 60.1 (one estimate), 60.0 (three votes), 59.5 (two votes), 59.4 (one estimate), 59.3 (one vote), 59.2 (three votes), 59.1 (one vote), 59.0 (12 votes), 58.9 (two estimates), 58.8 (three votes), and 58.7 (three estimates).

The lowest estimate is 57.5 (one vote), then 57.7 (one estimate), then 57.9 (one vote), 58.0 (10 votes), then 58.1 (three votes), then 58.3 (one vote), 58.4 (three votes), 58.5 (16 votes), and finally 58.6 (four estimates).

One standard deviation is +/- 0.61, down from 0.76 last month.

In addition to US ISM Manufacturing, we will also have US ISM Prices Paid and US Construction Spending (M/M) among some others coming out at the same time. While I think US ISM Manufacturing is most important of these reports, for best results I don't want to see a conflict, especially with US ISM Prices Paid. Good news is that such conflict is not likely if we have a tradable deviation, but, obviously, the more supporting other reports are, the better results we can expect. Don't expect huge spikes with this report, and as always please browse historic charts to see what to expect.

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