New Zealand Unemployment Rate

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/02/06

Release Time: 16:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 4.7
Prior: 4.6
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.3 [SELL]


CAUTION: Due to extreme volatility on the stock market all around the globe, this report may or may not work. It's hard to say if anyone cares about this report today since the stock market goes up and down by hundreds of points.

If NZ Unemployment Rate comes out at 4.4 or less ( -0.3 trigger) (that's good for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go up by about 30 pips. If it comes out at 5.0 or higher ( +0.3 trigger) (that's bad for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go down by about 30 pips.

Based on just 14 estimates, median estimate is 4.7% and average estimate is 4.62%. The highest estimate is 4.8% (two votes), then 4.7% (five votes), then 4.6% (two estimates), 4.5% (four estimates) and then finally the lowest estimate is 4.4% (one vote). One standard deviation is +/- 0.12%, about same as last time.

Since the average estimate is 4.62% (median is 4.70%), you may consider -0.3/+0.2 triggers.

It seems like Unemployment rate is released slightly before the Employment change; therefore, I had to switch focus on Unemployment rate. Still, if they came in agreement, then we would probably see a nice price action but you shouldn't assume that scenario, and +/- 0.2 triggers are kind of risky here due to a possible conflict. If they come out conflicting, then the price action most likely will be muted or may even go the other way.

A positive deviation on Employment Change is good for NZD/USD (buy) whereas a positive deviation on the Unemployment number is bad for NZD/USD (sell) because it means more people are out of work.

As always, I highly recommend to visit our economic calendar so you can check historic charts for this report.

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