GB Retail Sales Ex Gasoline (M/M)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/02/16

Release Time: 04:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: GBP/USD
Forecast: 0.6%
Prior: -1.6%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -1.0 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +1.0 [BUY]

If GB Retail Sales Ex Gasoline (M/M) comes out at -0.4% or more negative (-1.0 deviation), GBP/USD may go down by 30 pips or more. If it comes out at 1.6% or higher (+1.0% deviation), GBP/USD may go up by 30 pips or more.

Based on 19 estimates for GB Retail Sales without Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is 0.6%, and the average estimate is 0.47%. The highest estimate is 1.1% (one estimate), the second highest is 0.9% (two votes), then 0.8% (one estimate), then 0.7% (five estimates), then 0.6% (two estimates), 0.5% (one vote), 0.4% (one estimate), 0.3% (two votes), 0.2% (one vote), and finally -0.4% (three estimates). One standard deviation is +/- 0.43 about same as last month.

Also, based on 19 estimates for GB Retail Sales with Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is 0.5%, and the average estimate is 0.43%. The highest estimate is 1.1% (one estimate), the second highest is 0.9% (one estimate), then 0.8% (two estimates), 0.7% (three estimates), 0.6% (two estimates), 0.5% (three estimates), 0.4% (one estimate), 0.3% (two votes), 0.2% (one vote), -0.4% (one vote), -0.5% (one vote) and finally the lowest estimate is -0.6% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.46 from the average estimate, about same as last month.

It's hard to say which one is best, and perhaps you can set up triggers for both. In the past they both were released exactly at the same time.


As always it's a very good habit to check historic price action by going to our economic calendar where you can check exactly what happened in the past but just be careful.

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