US GDP (Q/Q) (2nd reading)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/02/28

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 2.5
Prior: 2.6
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.5 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.5 [BUY]

If US GDP Annualized comes out at 2.0% or less ( -0.5 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 25 pips. If it comes out at 3.0% or higher ( +0.5 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 25 pips.

Based on 71 estimates, median estimate is 2.5% and the average estimate is 2.49%. The highest estimate is 2.7% (one estimate), then 2.6% (15 estimates), 2.5% (38 estimates), then 24% (13 estimates), and then finally 2.3% (four estimates). One standard deviation is 0.08%, down from 0.15 three months ago.

This is the second release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action but don't expect anything big. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike.

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