New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/05/20

Release Time: 18:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 1.0
Prior: 1.7
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -1.2 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +1.2 [BUY]

If it comes at -0.2 or less ( -1.2 trigger), NZD/USD should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at 2.2 or higher ( +1.2 trigger), NZD/USD should go up by about 20 pips.

Based on 10 estimates, median estimate is 1.0% and the average estimate is 1.15%. The highest estimate is 2.0% (one estimate), and then 1.9% (one estimate), then 1.5% (one estimate), 1.2% (one estimate), 1.0% (two estimates), 0.9% (one vote), 0.8% (one vote), 0.7% (one vote) and finally the lowest estimate is 0.5% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.48% although keep in mind it's based on only 11 estimates.

This report sometimes work really well and sometimes not so well so don't get too excited although I don't really see how it should fail if it deviates well. However, it is released only once every three months so we don't have much data to analyze. As always, don't bet everything on one trade.

Pay close attention to the spread. Some brokers may play some tricks on this report although I don't expect problems since it's not a major report to trade. Also, watch out for pre-release price action.

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