US FOMC Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/06/13

Report name: US FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max
Release Time: 14:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 2.00
Prior: 1.75
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means no change)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means a 50 bp hike)
Safety: 1

There are 92 estimates, and all 92 economists expect a hike from 1.75% to 2.00%. Median estimate is 2.00 and the average estimate is 2.00%. One standard deviation is 0.00%.

If they cut to 1.50% or lower ( -0.50 deviation in this case), it would be a great sell signal on USD/JPY but this scenario will not happen.

If there is no change in interest rates so it would stay at 1.75% level ( -0.25 deviation in this case as everyone expects a hike), it should be a good sell signal on USD/JPY.

If they hike it to 2.00% (0.00 deviation in this case as it is widely expected to happen), since everyone expects it to happen, it's a no trade. The current price is probably priced-in already so it is very unpredictable what would happen in that scenario. I would stay away.

If they hike to 2.25% or higher (+0.25 deviation in this case), it would be a great buy signal on USD/JPY.

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