Canadian Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/07/11

Release Time: 10:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 1.50
Prior: 1.25
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [SELL]
Safety: 1

There are 21 estimates; 17 economists expect a hike from 1.25% to 1.50% while four economists expect no change in interest rates. The median estimate is 1.50% and the average estimate is 1.45%. One standard deviation is 0.10%.

If there is a cut from 1.25% to 1.00% or lower ( -0.50 deviation), USD/CAD should go up, possibly 75+ pips. This will not happen, however.

If there is no change in interest rates ( -0.25 deviation in this case), USD/CAD may go up quite well. Don't get too excited as sometimes interest rates can be dangerous to trade but I would expect it to go up in this scenario.

If there is a hike to 1.50% as expected (0.00 deviation in this case), I would stay away. USD/CAD may go down but I think it's quite risky to trade.

Of course, if they hike the rates to 1.75% or higher (in this case +0.25 deviation), USD/CAD or EUR/CAD should go down a lot, possibly 75+ pips but this is not likely to happen.

Again, interest rates can move markets well but sometimes can also make unpredictable moves. Do not trade excessive lot sizes here.

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