Australian Retail Sales (M/M)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/04/02

Release Time: 20:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 0.3%
Prior: 0.1%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.5 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.5 [BUY]
Safety: 3

CAUTION: Australia doesn't have a formal news lock-up process for their economic news releases (except for Interest Rate Statements), and their method to release the data is much less efficient than in other countries. This leads to some variations in news providers receiving the data in a timely manner. Although we subscribe to multiple news providers there is always a possibility to have that report leaked before major news providers get it into their system. For that reason, I don't recommend trading big volumes on this report as this may or may not work. Watch out for pre-release price action and use a panic stop if you see price volatility right before the report.

If the Australian Retail Sales (M/M) comes out at -0.2 or more negative ( -0.5 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at 0.8 or higher ( +0.5 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by about 20 pips.

Based on 29 estimates, median estimate is 0.3% and the average estimate is 0.27%. The highest estimate is 0.6% (one vote), then 0.5% (two estimates), then 0.4% (four estimates), 0.3% (10 estimates), 0.2% (nine votes), 0.1% (one estimates), and finally the lowest estimate is -0.1% (two votes). One standard deviation is +/- 0.15%, slightly lower than last month.


If you don't know anything about news trading, this article about News Trading on Forex with SNW should help a bit.

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