Canadian Employment Change

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/04/05

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: EUR/CAD, USD/CAD
Forecast: 6.0K
Prior: 55.9K
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -35 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +35 [SELL]
Safety: 199

If the Canadian Employment Change comes at -29K or more negative ( -35 trigger), EUR/CAD should go up by about 35 pips. If it comes out at 41K or higher ( +35 trigger), EUR/CAD should go down by about 35 pips.

Unfortunately, we will also have US Non-Farm Payroll coming out almost at the same time so at the minimum I would recommend staying away from USD/CAD. Please note that EUR/CAD can also be affected by the U.S. report but if the deviation is large enough, perhaps it's worthy to give a try and take a risk.

This report is usually released about 1 second before U.S. Non-Farm Payroll, and if you use SNW Elite or SNW Enterprise, you can set it up as a Group 2 report and trade independently. You cannot, however, set up a conflict resolution feature with the U.S. reports because they are not released exactly at the same time.

Based on 18 estimates, the median estimate is 6.0K and the average estimate is 2.3K. The highest estimate is +26K (one vote), and then 20K (two votes), 15K (two votes), 12K (one vote), and 10K (three votes).

The lowest estimate is -20K (one vote), then -18K (one vote) and then -15K (two votes), -12K (one vote), -10K (two votes), 0K (one vote) and finally +2K (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 15K, nearly the same as last month.

Please note that SNW Enterprise is usually much faster than SNW Elite or Pro for Canadian reports.

Keep in mind we will also have the unemployment rate coming out. If they conflict with each other, I would try to exit as soon as possible.

Remember that while higher Canadian Employment is good for CAD (selling pressure on USD/CAD or EUR/CAD), the higher unemployment rate is bad for CAD (buying pressure on USD/CAD or EUR/CAD). Therefore, ideally, we would like to see higher employment change and the lower unemployment rate, or lower employment change and higher unemployment rate.

It is always good to visit our Forex economic calendar so you can check past charts for this report. Sometimes this report works really well, sometimes doesn't work at all so it's good to know what to expect.

Forex news history and charts

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