Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/04/18
Release Time: 04:30 New York time (EST) Primary currency pair: GBP/USD Forecast: 0.3% Prior: 0.2% LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): 1.4 [SELL] UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +1.4 [BUY] Safety: 7
Due to uncertainty about Brexit, be careful about trading British reports for the next few weeks. The market surely is very focused on the Brexit outcome.
If GB Retail Sales Ex Gasoline (M/M) comes out at 1.7% or more negative (1.4 deviation), GBP/USD may go down by 20 pips or more. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher (+1.4% deviation), GBP/USD may go up by 20 pips or more.
Based on 19 estimates for GB Retail Sales without Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is 0.3%, and the average estimate is 0.38%. The highest estimate is +0.4% (three estimates), the second highest is 0.0% (one vote), then 0.1% (one estimate), then 0.2% (one estimate), then 0.3% (five estimates), 0.4% (two votes), 0.5% (one vote), 0.6% (one vote), 0.7% (one estimate), then 0.9% (one vote), then 1.5% (one vote), and finally 1.7% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/ 0.54, same as last month.
Also, based on 19 estimates for GB Retail Sales with Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is 0.3%, and the average estimate is 0.33%. The highest estimate is +0.5% (one estimate), the second highest is 0.4% (one estimate), then 0.3% (two estimates), 0.2% (one estimate), 0.0% (one estimate), then 0.2% (two estimates), 0.3% (three estimates), 0.4% (one estimate), 0.5% (three votes), 0.7% (one vote), then 1.0% (one vote), 1.4% (one vote) and finally the lowest estimate is 1.6% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/ 0.56 from the average estimate, about the same as last month.
It's hard to say which one is best, and perhaps you can set up triggers for both. In the past, they both were released exactly at the same time.
As always it's a very good habit to check historic price action by going to our economic calendar where you can check exactly what happened in the past but just be careful.
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