New Zealand Unemployment Rate


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/04/30

Release Time: 18:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 4.3
Prior: 4.3
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.3 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [SELL]
Safety: 1

PLEASE NOTE I'M PROVIDING TRIGGERS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, *NOT* EMPLOYMENT CHANGE SO THE TRIGGER ACTIONS ARE *REVERSED*.

If NZ Unemployment Rate comes out at 4.0 or less ( -0.3 trigger) (that's good for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go up by about 30 pips. If it comes out at 4.5 or higher ( +0.2 trigger) (that's bad for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go down by about 30 pips.

Based on just 16 estimates, the median estimate is 4.3% and the average estimate is 4.27%. The highest estimate is 4.5% (one vote), then 4.4% (three votes), 4.3% (four votes), 4.2% (six votes) and then finally the lowest estimate is 4.1% (two votes).

It seems like the Unemployment rate is released slightly before the Employment change; therefore, I had to switch focus on the Unemployment rate. Still, if they came in agreement, then we would probably see a nice price action but you shouldn't assume that scenario, and please understand that +/- 0.2 triggers are kind of risky here due to a possible conflict. If they come out conflicting, then the price action most likely will be muted or may even go the other way.

Additionally, SNW Enterprise, due to additional feeds, may be much faster than SNW Elite or Pro, so be careful if you use SNW Elite or Pro on this report.

A positive deviation on Employment Change is good for NZD/USD (buy) whereas a positive deviation on the Unemployment number is bad for NZD/USD (sell) because it means more people are out of work.

As always, I highly recommend to visit our economic calendar so you can check historic charts for this report.

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