Australian Retail Sales (M/M)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/06

Release Time: 21:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 0.2%
Prior: 0.8%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.5 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.5 [BUY]
Safety: 3

CAUTION: Later tonight we will also have AU Interest Rates coming out, and there is a split in consensus. That means this report may work quite well OR we may have weird price action due to the anticipation for interest rates outcome. Be careful.

CAUTION: Australia doesn't have a formal news lock-up process for their economic news releases (except for Interest Rate Statements), and their method to release the data is much less efficient than in other countries. This leads to some variations in news providers receiving the data in a timely manner. Although we subscribe to multiple news providers there is always a possibility to have that report leaked before major news providers get it into their system. For that reason, I don't recommend trading big volumes on this report as this may or may not work. Watch out for pre-release price action and use a panic stop if you see price volatility right before the report.

If the Australian Retail Sales (M/M) comes out at -0.3 or more negative ( -0.5 trigger), AUD/USD should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at 0.7 or higher ( +0.5 trigger), AUD/USD should go up by about 20 pips.

Based on 26 estimates, median estimate is 0.2% and the average estimate is 0.19%. The highest estimate is 0.5% (two votes), then 0.4% (three estimates), then 0.3% (five estimates), 0.2% (8 estimates), 0.1% (three votes), 0.0% (two estimates), -0.1% (one vote), -0.2% (one vote) and finally the lowest estimate is -0.3% (one vote). One standard deviation is +/- 0.19%, slightly higher than last month.


If you don't know anything about news trading, this article about News Trading on Forex with SNW should help a bit.

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