Australian Interest Rates

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/07

Release Time: 00:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 1.25
Prior: 1.50
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): 0.00 [SELL] (means 0.25 cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

CAUTION: please make sure the forecast value is still 1.25 at the time of the news release. Since it's nearly 50/50 split if something changes in consensus between now and when the report is being released, there is a possibility to see a change in the forecast to 1.50 - and if it happens, you need to adjust triggers. Provided triggers are valid ONLY if the forecasted value is 1.25.

There are 29 estimates, and 15 economists expect a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% while 14 economists expect no change this time. Therefore, the median estimate is 1.25% and the average estimate is 1.37%. One standard deviation is 0.12%.

If there is a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% ( 0.00 deviation in this case as this is the median estimate in this case), AUD/USD should go down by a lot, possibly 50+ pips.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation in this case), AUD/USD may go up quite a bit, possibly 50+ pips. The reason why it could react that way is no cut with the market expecting a cut is a kind of like a hike.

Of course, if they hike the rates to 1.75% or higher (+0.50 deviation), it would be a good buy signal on AUD/USD but it's unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

Forex news history and charts

Go back to the Forex Market News listing
Copyright © 2014 Secret Weapons LLC. All Rights Reserved.   問い合わせ | 提携プログラム | 個人情報保護方針