New Zealand Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/07

Release Time: 22:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 1.50
Prior: 1.75
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): 0.00 [SELL] (means a 0.25% cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

There are 20 estimates, and 14 economists expect a cut from 1.75% to 1.50% while 6 economists expect no change in interest rates this time. The median estimate is 1.50% and the average estimate is 1.58%. One standard deviation is 0.11.

If they cut to 1.50% or lower ( 0.00 deviation in this case), NZD/USD should go down a bit but don't bet big money here. 70% of the surveyed economists expect this scenario so the market might be already priced in. It is surely worthy to give a try but as always with the interest rates, be careful.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation in this case as the market expects the cut), then NZD/USD should go up quite a bit. Since the market is expecting the cut, no cut would be equivalent of raising the interest rate, hence strong possibility of NZD/USD going up.

If they hike the rates to 2.00% or higher (+0.50 deviation in this case), it would be an excellent buy signal on NZD/USD but it's extremely unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

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