New Zealand Retail Sales Ex Inflation

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/21

Release Time: 18:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 0.6
Prior: 1.7
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -1.0 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +1.0 [BUY]
Safety: 5

If it comes at -0.4 or less ( -1.0 trigger), NZD/USD should go down by about 20 pips. If it comes out at 1.6 or higher ( +1.0 trigger), NZD/USD should go up by about 20 pips.

Based on 12 estimates, median estimate is 0.6% and the average estimate is 0.63%. The highest estimate is 1.0% (two estimates), and then 0.8% (two estimates), then 0.7% (one estimate), 0.6% (two estimates), 0.5% (three estimates), 0.4% (one vote), and finally the lowest estimate is 0.2% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.23% although keep in mind it's based on only 12 estimates.

This report sometimes works really well and sometimes not so well so don't get too excited although I don't really see how it should fail if it deviates well. However, it is released only once every three months and often times early on Sunday so we don't have much data to analyze. As always, don't bet everything on one trade.

Pay close attention to the spread. Some brokers may play some tricks on this report although I don't expect problems since it's not a major report to trade. Also, watch out for pre-release price action.

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