Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/02/14

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 0.3%
Prior: 0.1%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.1 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [BUY]

If US CPI (M/M) comes out at 0.2% or less ( -0.1 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 30 pips. If it comes out at +0.5 or higher ( +0.2 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 30 pips.

Based on 74 estimates, median estimate is 0.3% and the average estimate is 0.34%. The highest estimate is +0.4% (30 estimates), and then 0.3% (43 estimates), and finally, the lowest estimate is 0.2% (one estimate). One standard deviation is 0.05%, down from 0.07 last month.

Unfortunately, this month we will also have US Retail Sales coming out at the same time and while both reports are important, I think US CPI can actually create greater price movement.

Please be very careful as this time it might be quite risky to trade if we get a severe conflict with US Retail Sales.

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