Canadian Retail Sales (M/M)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/10/19

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 0.3
Prior: 0.3
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.8 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.7 [SELL]
Safety: 4

NOTICE: This report works much faster on SNW Enterprise by about 400-550 ms. SNW Elite or Pro users should consider skipping this report. Please notice that triggers are provided for the headline number, NOT the Core. Consider multi-report conflict resolution mode between the headline and the core numbers.

If Canadian Retail Sales (M/M) comes at -0.5 or less ( -0.8 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 20 pips. If it comes out at +1.0 or higher ( +0.7 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 20 pips.

We will also have Canadian CPI coming out at the same time, and I think CA CPI is way more important now. In fact, I would recommend focussing on CA CPI instead.

There are 13 estimates for Canadian Retail Sales. Median estimate is 0.3% and the average estimate is 0.27%. The highest estimate is +0.7% (one vote), and then 0.6% (one vote), 0.5% (two votes), then 0.4% (two estimates), 0.3% (two votes), 0.2% (one estimate), 0.1% (one vote), 0.05% (one vote), then -0.2% (one vote) and then finally -0.3% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.29%, about same as last month.

Ten months ago it came out conflicting with the headline number, and the price action was bad. It seems like the headline number is slightly more important so this time I'm providing triggers on the headline report (not core). Nevertheless, I would recommend to set up multi-report conflict resolution mode in case there is a conflict like it was last month.

Additionally, it's hard to judge how well it performs because often it comes out with Canadian CPI reports as well. Nevertheless, it looks like this report usually performs quite well.

Please keep in mind that SNW Enterprise is MUCH faster than SNW Elite or Pro for Canadian reports. It's not recommended to trade this report with SNW Elite or SNW Pro.


To prepare yourself for this report, I recommend you to visit Forex economic calendar to browse historic charts. This would assist you in making your decision if you want to trade this report.

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