Canadian CPI (M/M)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/10/19

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 0.1
Prior: -0.1
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.2 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.2 [SELL]
Safety: 1

If the Canadian CPI (M/M) comes at -0.1% or less ( -0.2 trigger), USD/CAD should go up by about 40 pips. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher ( +0.2 trigger), USD/CAD should go down by about 40 pips.

-0.2/+0.1 triggers may work OK this month since the statistical standard deviation is below 0.1 this month. However, I think +/- 0.1 triggers (specifically -0.1) are quite risky due to the possibility of a conflict with the Canadian Retail Sales. Such small triggers may or may not work OK, and if you decide to trade +/- 0.1 triggers, do not put a lot of money on a single trade.

We will also have Canadian Retail Sales coming out, and I think CA CPI is slightly more important but you can actually set up a conflict resolution mode (if you have SNW Enterprise or SNW Elite) and trade either one as long as there is no significant conflict between the two.

Based on 15 estimates on CA CPI (M/M), median estimate is 0.1% and the average estimate is 0.07%. The highest estimate is 0.2% (two estimates), then 0.1% (seven votes), then 0.0% (five votes), and then finally the lowest estimate is -0.1% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.08, down from 0.17 last month.

Please keep in mind that SNW Enterprise is much faster than SNW Elite or Pro for Canadian reports.

As always, it's crucial to visit our economic calendar to study historic price actions for this report. Never trade without doing some research about past performance. While the performance may change a lot, studying historic charts on our economic calendar page is the only way to lower your risk so you can make a more educated decision about your participation in this news event and the trade size you want to bet.

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