US GDP (Q/Q) (Advance - 1st reading)


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/10/26

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 3.3
Prior: 4.2
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.5 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.6 [BUY]
Safety: 3

If US GDP Annualized comes out at 2.8% or less ( -0.5 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 30 pips. If it comes out at +3.9 or higher ( +0.6 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 30 pips.

Based on 71 estimates, median estimate is 3.3% and the average estimate is 3.37%. The highest estimate is 4.2% (one estimate), then 4.1% (two estimates), 4.0% (one estimate), then 3.9% (two estimates), then 3.8% (three estimates), 3.7% (four estimates), 3.6% (three estimates), 3.5% (10 votes) and 3.4% (seven estimates).

The lowest estimate is 2.4% (one estimate), then 2.6% (one estimate), then 2.7% (one estimate), 2.8% (one estimate), 2.9% (one estimate), 3.0% (six estimates), 3.1% (two votes), 3.2% (11 votes) and finally 3.3% (14 votes). One standard deviation is 0.33, slightly lower than last time (three months ago).

This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with such deviation. In fact, I would expect a decent price action even with more aggressive +/- 0.4 triggers.

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