New Zealand Unemployment Rate


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/11/06

Release Time: 16:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 4.4
Prior: 4.5
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.2 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.3 [SELL]
Safety: 2

PLEASE NOTE I'M PROVIDING TRIGGERS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, *NOT* EMPLOYMENT CHANGE SO THE TRIGGER ACTIONS ARE *REVERSED*.

If NZ Unemployment Rate comes out at 4.2 or less ( -0.2 trigger) (that's good for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go up by about 30 pips. If it comes out at 4.7 or higher ( +0.3 trigger) (that's bad for New Zealand), NZD/USD should go down by about 30 pips.

Based on just 12 estimates, the median estimate is 4.4% and the average estimate is 4.45%. The highest estimate is 4.6% (one vote), then 4.5% (five votes), and then finally the lowest estimate is 4.4% (six votes).

It seems like the Unemployment rate is released slightly before the Employment change; therefore, I had to switch focus on the Unemployment rate. Still, if they came in agreement, then we would probably see a nice price action but you shouldn't assume that scenario, and please understand that +/- 0.2 triggers are kind of risky here due to a possible conflict. If they come out conflicting, then the price action most likely will be muted or may even go the other way.

A positive deviation on Employment Change is good for NZD/USD (buy) whereas a positive deviation on the Unemployment number is bad for NZD/USD (sell) because it means more people are out of work.

As always, I highly recommend to visit our economic calendar so you can check historic charts for this report.

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