US FOMC Interest Rates

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2018/12/19

Report name: US FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max
Release Time: 14:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 2.50
Prior: 2.25
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means no change)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means a 50 bp hike)
Safety: 1

There are 92 estimates, and two economists expect no change this time while 90 economists expect a hike from 2.25% to 2.50%. The median estimate is 2.50 and the average estimate is 2.49%. One standard deviation is 0.04%.

If they cut to 2.00% or lower ( -0.50 deviation in this case), it would be a great sell signal on USD/JPY but this scenario will not happen.

If there is no change in interest rates so it would stay at 2.25% level ( -0.25 deviation in this case as a hike is expected), it would still be a great sell signal on USD/JPY because the widely expected hike didn't happen.

If they hike from 2.25% to 2.50% (0.00 deviation as it's widely expected), I would stay away because the market is most likely already priced in.

If they hike to 2.75% or higher (+0.25 deviation in this case), it would be a great buy signal on USD/JPY. It's not likely to happen but if it does happen, it should be a very good price movement.

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