US Non-Farm Payroll

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/03

US Non-Farm payroll is one of the best reports to trade although sometimes even this report may not perform as great as expected. It's best to analyze charts from our economic calendar page where you can find 1-second candles on many currency pairs and other instruments such as Gold or Dow Mini or Nasdaq Mini or even oil.

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: +190K
Prior: +196K
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -60 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +60 [BUY]
Safety: 399

IMPORTANT NOTE: Once a while this report is a complete failure so never trade huge money on this report. Usually, it works quite well but once a blue moon results are disappointing.

This time I suggest to use a conflict resolution mode to at least prevent a possible conflict with the unemployment rate. Here is how to do it (for SNW Enterprise and SNW Elite):

1. For US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, select “1” and “P” (this means it's a primary report for Group 1), and enter your triggers where positive triggers would cause Buy action and negative triggers Sell action if trading USD/JPY for example.

2. For US Unemployment Rate, select “1” and “S” (this means it's a secondary report for Group 1), and enter -0.2 trigger for Buy 1 action and +0.2 trigger for Sell 1 action (these are reversed triggers because higher unemployment is bad, and lower unemployment is good). Do not enter anything for Buy2/Sell2 or Buy3/Sell3. This configuration would allow small +/- 0.1 conflict but would prevent +/- 0.2 or higher conflicts. If you do not wish to allow any conflicts, then set up +/- 0.1 triggers instead of +/- 0.2 triggers.

3. Then Click on the Report Setup button that belongs to the MRRM Group 1 section. In MRRM Group 1 Configuration window make these selections:

a. Select “[x]Wait for all Primary and Secondary Reports before any trade action.

b. For Maximum Multi-Report wait, select 100 from the drop-down menu. Or perhaps even 50.

c. Select “[x] Primary Reports Confirm Method = When all are B1s or S1s or better” (there is only one primary report selected anyway).

d. Select “[x] Secondary Reports Confirm Method = When all are No Trade or better”.

4. Close that window and then set up mouse clicks.

Please be careful this month as there might be a weird price action this month, especially if there is a big revision coming out.

If US Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change comes out at 130K or less ( -60 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 25 pips or more. If it comes out at 250K or better ( +60 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 25 pips or better.

Based on 79 estimates, the median estimate is 190K and the average estimate is 192K. The highest estimate is 250K (one estimate), and then 235K (three estimates), 230K (two votes), 225K (three votes), 220K (four estimates), 215K (two votes), 210K (eight votes), 205K (two votes), 200K (five votes), 195K (five votes) and 190K (10 votes).

The lowest estimate is 120K (one vote), then 130K (one vote), 150K (one estimate), 160K (five estimates), 165K (three votes), 170K (four votes), 175K (eight votes), 180K (six votes), and finally 185K (five estimates). Values in the breakdown have been rounded to the nearest 5K so it's easier to read and analyze.

One standard deviation is +/- 24K, nearly the same as last month.

As always, there is a possibility of a severe conflict with the Revision number or Unemployment rate. Please see above how to use conflict resolution mode.

Some people also look at US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) and if there is a conflict there, we might see muted price action. This can also be added to the conflict resolution mode as another "1" "S" report.

Please remember that a deviation of 0.2 on the unemployment rate can move USD/JPY on its own. A positive deviation of the unemployment rate is bad for USD because it means higher unemployment. However, a positive deviation from the employment change or revision is good for USD because it means more people got new jobs.

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