Canadian Employment Change


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/05/10

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: EUR/CAD, USD/CAD
Forecast: 11.6K
Prior: -7.2K
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -25 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +25 [SELL]
Safety: 199

If the Canadian Employment Change comes at -13.4K or more negative ( -25 trigger), EUR/CAD should go up by about 30 pips. If it comes out at 36.6K or higher ( +25 trigger), EUR/CAD should go down by about 30 pips.

We will also have US CPI coming out at the same time but I consider Canadian Employment change way more important. If anything, consider EUR/CAD rather than USD/CAD.

Based on 19 estimates, the median estimate is 11.6K and the average estimate is 10.8K. The highest estimate is +26K (one vote), and then 25K (one vote), 20K (three votes), 18K (one vote), 15K (three votes), 12K (one vote) and 10K (two votes).

The lowest estimate is -10K (one vote), then 0K (three votes) and then 2K (one vote), 4K (one vote), and finally 5K (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 10K, down from 15K last month.

Please note that SNW Enterprise is usually much faster than SNW Elite or Pro for Canadian reports.

Keep in mind we will also have the unemployment rate coming out. If they conflict with each other, I would try to exit as soon as possible.

Remember that while higher Canadian Employment is good for CAD (selling pressure on USD/CAD or EUR/CAD), the higher unemployment rate is bad for CAD (buying pressure on USD/CAD or EUR/CAD). Therefore, ideally, we would like to see higher employment change and the lower unemployment rate, or lower employment change and higher unemployment rate.



It is always good to visit our Forex economic calendar so you can check past charts for this report. Sometimes this report works really well, sometimes doesn't work at all so it's good to know what to expect.

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