Australian Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/06/04

Release Time: 00:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 1.25
Prior: 1.50
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means 0.50 cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

CAUTION: please make sure the forecast value is still 1.25 at the time of the news release. Since it's nearly 50/50 split if something changes in consensus between now and when the report is being released, there is a possibility to see a change in the forecast to 1.50 - and if it happens, you need to adjust triggers. Provided triggers are valid ONLY if the forecasted value is 1.25.

There are 38 estimates, and 36 economists expect a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% while two economists expect no change this time. Therefore, the median estimate is 1.25% and the average estimate is 1.26%. One standard deviation is 0.06%.

If there is a cut from 1.50% to 1.00% ( -0.25 deviation in this case as 0.25 cust is already expected), AUD/USD should go down by a lot, possibly 50+ pips. This scenario is unlikely to happen.

If there is a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% ( 0.00 deviation in this case as this is the median estimate in this case), AUD/USD may possibly go down a little bit but it is risky to trade. The market already expects the cut.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation in this case), AUD/USD may go up quite a bit, possibly 50+ pips. The reason why it could react that way is that no cut with the market expecting a cut is a kind of like a hike.

Of course, if they hike the rates to 1.75% or higher (+0.50 deviation), it would be a good buy signal on AUD/USD but it's unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

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