Australian Interest Rates

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/06/04

Release Time: 00:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 1.25
Prior: 1.50
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means 0.50 cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

CAUTION: please make sure the forecast value is still 1.25 at the time of the news release. Since it's nearly 50/50 split if something changes in consensus between now and when the report is being released, there is a possibility to see a change in the forecast to 1.50 - and if it happens, you need to adjust triggers. Provided triggers are valid ONLY if the forecasted value is 1.25.

There are 38 estimates, and 36 economists expect a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% while two economists expect no change this time. Therefore, the median estimate is 1.25% and the average estimate is 1.26%. One standard deviation is 0.06%.

If there is a cut from 1.50% to 1.00% ( -0.25 deviation in this case as 0.25 cust is already expected), AUD/USD should go down by a lot, possibly 50+ pips. This scenario is unlikely to happen.

If there is a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% ( 0.00 deviation in this case as this is the median estimate in this case), AUD/USD may possibly go down a little bit but it is risky to trade. The market already expects the cut.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation in this case), AUD/USD may go up quite a bit, possibly 50+ pips. The reason why it could react that way is that no cut with the market expecting a cut is a kind of like a hike.

Of course, if they hike the rates to 1.75% or higher (+0.50 deviation), it would be a good buy signal on AUD/USD but it's unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

Forex news history and charts

Go back to the Forex Market News listing

Copyright © 2014 Secret Weapons LLC. All Rights Reserved.   Contact Us | Affiliates | Privacy Policy

Risk disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as educational material and general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Seek a licensed advisor. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.