GB Retail Sales Ex Gasoline (M/M)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/07/18

Release Time: 04:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: GBP/USD
Forecast: -0.2%
Prior: -0.3%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -1.4 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +1.4 [BUY]
Safety: 7

Due to uncertainty about Brexit, be careful about trading British reports for the next few months. The market surely is very focused on the Brexit outcome.

If GB Retail Sales Ex Gasoline (M/M) comes out at -1.6% or more negative (-1.4 deviation), GBP/USD may go down by 15 pips or more. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher (+1.4% deviation), GBP/USD may go up by 15 pips or more.

Based on 21 estimates for GB Retail Sales without Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is -0.2%, and the average estimate is -0.18%. The highest estimate is +0.8% (one estimate), the second highest is 0.2% (four votes), then 0.1% (one estimate), then 0.0% (one estimate), then -0.1% (one estimate), -0.2% (four votes), -0.3% (three votes), -0.4% (two votes), -0.6% (two estimates), then -0.7% (one vote), and finally -1.0% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.38, about same as last month.

Also, based on 22 estimates for GB Retail Sales with Gasoline (M/M), median estimate is -0.3%, and the average estimate is -0.24%. The highest estimate is +0.5% (two estimates), the second highest is 0.2% (four estimates), then 0.0% (one estimate), -0.1% (one estimate), -0.3% (six estimates), then -0.4% (three estimates), -0.6% (two estimates), -0.8% (one estimate), and finally the lowest estimate is -1.0% (two estimates). One standard deviation is +/- 0.41 from the average estimate, about same as last month.

It's hard to say which one is best, and perhaps you can set up triggers for both. In the past, they both were released exactly at the same time.

As always it's a very good habit to check historic price action by going to our economic calendar where you can check exactly what happened in the past but just be careful.

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