New Zealand Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/08/06

Release Time: 22:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 1.25
Prior: 1.50
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means a 0.50% cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

There are 21 estimates, and 18 economists expect a cut from 1.50% to 1.25% while three economists expect no change this month. The median estimate is 1.25% and the average estimate is 1.29%. One standard deviation is 0.09.

If they cut to from 1.50% to 1.00% or lower ( -0.25 deviation as 0.25 cut is expected), NZD/USD should go down a lot but it's not expected to happen.

If they cut from 1.50% to 1.25% as expected (0.00 deviation), NZD/USD may go down but this is very risky to trade as the price may easily reverse. Perhaps it's best to stay away.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation as 0.25 cut is expected), then I think it might be a decent opportunity to buy NZD/USD. As always with the interest rates, be careful as sometimes the price action can be very surprising and fast-moving.

If they hike the rates to 1.75% or higher (+0.50 deviation in this case), it would be an excellent buy signal on NZD/USD but it's extremely unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

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