Australian Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/10/01

Release Time: 00:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 0.75
Prior: 1.00
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means 0.50 cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

There are 32 estimates, and 25 economists expect a cut from 1.00% to 0.75% while 7 economists expect no change this time. Therefore, the median estimate is 0.75% and the average estimate is 0.80%. One standard deviation is 0.10%.

If there is a cut from 1.00% to 0.50% ( -0.25 deviation in this case as a cut to 0.75% is expected), AUD/USD should go down by a lot, possibly 50+ pips. This is not likely to happen.

If there is a cut from 1.00% to 0.75% ( 0.00 deviation in this case as it is expected), AUD/USD should go down a little bit but this might be quite risky to trade. Unless you have a lot of experience, I would recommend staying away.

If there is no change in interest rates (+0.25 deviation in this case as a cut is expected), this might bring AUD/USD up a little bit. Be careful but I think you can give a try.

Of course, if they hike the rates to 1.25% or higher (+0.50 deviation), it would be a good buy signal on AUD/USD but it's unlikely to happen.

As always with the interest rates, be careful and do not overtrade it. Usually, interest rates are released on time.

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