US FOMC Interest Rates

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2019/10/30

Report name: US FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max
Release Time: 14:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 1.75
Prior: 2.00
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [SELL] (means a 50 bp cut)
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [BUY] (means no change)
Safety: 1

There are 102 estimates, and 82 economists expect a cut from 2.00% to 1.75%, while 22 economists expect no change this month. The median estimate is 1.75 and the average estimate is 1.80%. One standard deviation is 0.10%.

If they cut to 1.50% or lower ( -0.25 deviation in this case as a 1.75% rate is widely expected), it would be a great sell signal on USD/JPY. It's not likely to happen but if it does happen, it might be a very good price movement.

If there is a cut to 1.75% (0.00 deviation as it is expected to happen), it's a no-trade. Overall, the market mostly expects this scenario to happen. I would personally stay away. In fact, last month in a similar scenario, the price actually went up a little bit for a short period of time. Just no trade.

If there is no change in interest rates so it would stay at 2.00% level ( +0.25 deviation in this case), then USD/JPY may go up. As always, be careful but there is a good chance for a decent trade here. Be careful, though.

As always with the interest rates, be careful as sometimes price actions may be very fast-moving with big reversals.

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