US GDP (Q/Q) (Advance - 1st reading)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2020/01/30

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: 2.0
Prior: 2.1
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.5 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.5 [BUY]
Safety: 3

If US GDP Annualized comes out at 1.5% or less ( -0.5 trigger), USD/JPY should go down by about 30 pips. If it comes out at +2.5 or higher ( +0.5 trigger), USD/JPY should go up by about 30 pips.

Based on 79 estimates, median estimate is 2.0% and the average estimate is 1.97%. The highest estimate is 2.9% (one estimate), then 2.5% (one estimate), 2.4% (three estimates), then 2.3% (5 estimates), then 2.2% (13 estimates), and 2.1% (13 estimates).

The lowest estimate is 1.0% (one estimate), then 1.1% (one vote), 1.2% (one estimate), then 1.3% (one estimate), 1.4% (one vote), 1.5% (two votes), 1.6% (four estimates), 1.7% (five votes), 1.8% (eight votes), 1.9% (eight estimates), and finally 2.0% (11 votes). One standard deviation is 0.32.

This is the first release out of the three versions of the US GDP, and if the trigger is hit, we may see some price action. Unfortunately, because the Advance GDP happens only once every three months, there is not much data I can look at so it's hard to estimate the exact size of the spike. Nevertheless, I don't think you could possibly lose money with such deviation. In fact, I would expect a decent price action even with more aggressive +/- 0.4 triggers.

Forex news history and charts

Go back to the Forex Market News listing

Copyright © 2014 Secret Weapons LLC. All Rights Reserved.   Contact Us | Affiliates | Privacy Policy

Risk disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as educational material and general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Seek a licensed advisor. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.