Canadian Interest Rates


Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2020/03/04

Release Time: 10:00 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/CAD
Forecast: 1.50
Prior: 1.75
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.25 [BUY]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.25 [SELL]
Safety: 1

There are 32 estimates and 14 economists expect a big cut from 1.75% to 1.25%, 15 economists expect a small cut from 1.75 to 1.50%, and 3 economists expect no cut at all so the rates would stay at 1.75% level. The median estimate is 1.50% and the average estimate is 1.41%. One standard deviation is 0.16%.

If there is a big cut to 1.25% or lower ( -0.25 deviation in this case as a small cut is expected), USD/CAD should go up, possibly 50+ pips.

If there is a small cut to 1.50% (0.00 deviation as it is expected), I would stay away. There is a possibility that USD/CAD or EUR/CAD could go down a little bit but I think it's quite risky to trade as some economists expected no cut at all. It may very well go the other way so I don't recommend trading this scenario.

If there no change in interest rates (in this case +0.25 deviation as a small cut is expected), USD/CAD or EUR/CAD should go down a lot, possibly 45+ pips.

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