New Zealand GDP (Q/Q)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2020/03/18

Release Time: 17:45 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: NZD/USD
Forecast: 0.5
Prior: 0.7
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): -0.4 [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +0.4 [BUY]
Safety: 1

Due to unprecedented economical events, trading anything this week is quite risky. This report may or may not work.

If NZ GDP (Q/Q) comes out at 0.1 ( -0.4 trigger), NZD/USD should go down by about 25 pips. If it comes out at 0.9 or higher ( +0.4 trigger), NZD/USD should go up by about 25 pips.

Based on 20 estimates, median estimate is 0.5% and average estimate is 0.52%. The highest estimate is 0.7% (one vote), then 0.6% (seven votes), then 0.5% (seven estimates), 0.4% (four votes), and finally the lowest estimate is 0.3% (one estimate). One standard deviation is +/- 0.10%.

The problem with this report is we will also have NZ GDP (Y/Y) release that may or may not be slightly faster, and it may also conflict. In fact, in the past, we saw the annual report (Y/Y) being released 250 ms before (Q/Q) - for SNW Enterprise users. So you may consider your own triggers for the (Y/Y) report as well, in case it's being released slightly faster.

Additionally, it seems SNW Enterprise performs significantly faster than Elite or Pro so if you are Elite or Pro user, don't trade big money on this report, and if you are Enterprise user, be still careful and don't go too crazy either.

This set of reports is being released only once every three months; therefore, we don't have too much data to work with. However, I think if we hit the trigger, we should have a tradable spike.

Again, NZ GDP (Q/Q) and GDP (Y/Y) are not released exactly at the same time so you can't use a multi-report resolution feature. Based on past performance, either GDP (Q/Q) or (Y/Y) can be slightly faster.

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