Australian Retail Sales (M/M)

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2020/05/05

Release Time: 21:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: AUD/USD
Forecast: 8.0%
Prior: 0.5%
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): --- [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +++ [BUY]
Safety: 3

I don't have any triggers recommendations due to COVID19, and the spread is huge: estimates range between -5.0% to +8.5%. This is unprecedented. Absolutely amazing. Also, the data is for March, so it doesn't fully capture COVID19 damage yet.

CAUTION: Australia doesn't have a formal news lock-up process for their economic news releases (except for Interest Rate Statements), and their method to release the data is much less efficient than in other countries. This leads to some variations in news providers receiving the data in a timely manner. Although we subscribe to multiple news providers there is always a possibility to have that report leaked before major news providers get it into their system. For that reason, I don't recommend trading big volumes on this report as this may or may not work. Watch out for pre-release price action and use a panic stop if you see price volatility right before the report.

Based on 28 estimates, median estimate is 8.0% and the average estimate is 6.5%. The highest estimate is 8.6% (one vote), then 8.5% (one estimate), then 8.2% (11 estimates), 8.0% (five estimates), 7.8% (one estimate), 7.5% (one vote), 7.4% (one estimate), 7.0% (three votes), and then 0.5% (one vote), 0.3% (one vote), then -3.8% (one vote) and finally the lowest estimate is -5.0% (one vote). One standard deviation is +/- 3.63%.

If you don't know anything about news trading, this article about News Trading on Forex with SNW should help a bit.

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