US Non-Farm Payroll

Fx News Spike Signals by Crazy Cat, 2020/05/08

US Non-Farm payroll is one of the best reports to trade although sometimes even this report may not perform as great as expected. It's best to analyze charts from our economic calendar page where you can find 1-second candles on many currency pairs and other instruments such as Gold or Dow Mini or Nasdaq Mini or even oil.

Release Time: 08:30 New York time (EST)
Primary currency pair: USD/JPY
Forecast: -22000K
Prior: -701K
LT1 (Lower Trigger 1): --- [SELL]
UT1 (Upper Trigger 1): +++ [BUY]

Due to COVID19, I don't have trigger recommendations for this month. The market is very unpredictable, and we may see huge deviations with very little price action, or even the price action going the other way. While the data is for April - so fairly fresh - the situation is very dynamic.

Based on 84 estimates, the median estimate is -22000K and the average estimate is -21891K. The highest estimate is -8600K (one estimate), and then -17095K (one estimate), -18000K (three votes), -18500K (one vote), -18700K (one estimate), -18990K (one vote), -19000K (one vote), -19500K (one vote), -19700K (one estimate), -19750K (one estimate), -19950K (one vote), -20000K (18 votes), -21500K (one vote), -20700K (one vote), -21000K (four votes), -21500K (one vote), -21600K (one vote) and -21705K (one vote).

The lowest estimate is -30000K (one vote), then -28400K (one vote), -28000K (two estimates), -26800K (one estimate), -26500K (one vote), -26000K (one vote), -25000K (8 votes), -24200K (one vote), -24000K (five votes), -23500K (one vote), -23000K (6 votes), -22700K (one vote), -22675K (one vote), -22545K (one vote), -22500K (three votes), -22220K (one vote) and finally -22000K (9 estimates). Values in the breakdown have been rounded to the nearest 5K so it's easier to read and analyze.

One standard deviation is +/- 2961K, a little tiny bit higher than last month. ;-)) Good luck with your triggers.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Once a while this report is a complete failure so never trade huge money on this report. Sometimes it works quite well but once a blue moon results are very disappointing. If you are SNW Enterprise customer, consider trading Canadian employment reports as well. Or even better, skip trading at all.

This time I suggest using a conflict resolution mode to at least prevent a possible conflict with the unemployment rate. Here is how to do it (for SNW Enterprise and SNW Elite):

1. For US Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, select “1” and “P” (this means it's a primary report for Group 1), and enter your triggers where positive triggers would cause Buy action and negative triggers Sell action if trading USD/JPY for example.

2. For US Unemployment Rate, select “1” and “S” (this means it's a secondary report for Group 1), and enter -0.2 trigger for Buy 1 action and +0.2 trigger for Sell 1 action (these are reversed triggers because higher unemployment is bad, and lower unemployment is good). Do not enter anything for Buy2/Sell2 or Buy3/Sell3. This configuration would allow small +/- 0.1 conflict but would prevent +/- 0.2 or higher conflicts. If you do not wish to allow any conflicts, then set up +/- 0.1 triggers instead of +/- 0.2 triggers.

3. Then click on the Report Setup button that belongs to the MRRM Group 1 section. In MRRM Group 1 Configuration window make these selections:

a. Select “[x]Wait for all Primary and Secondary Reports before any trade action.

b. For Maximum Multi-Report wait, select 100 from the drop-down menu. Or perhaps even 50.

c. Select “[x] Primary Reports Confirm Method = When all are B1s or S1s or better” (there is only one primary report selected anyway).

d. Select “[x] Secondary Reports Confirm Method = When all are No Trade or better”.

4. Close that window and then set up mouse clicks.

5. (Optional) If you also wish to trade Canadian Employment at the same time, set up that report as "2" "P" (which means a primary report for Group 2), and then set up corresponding mouse clicks for Group 2. That means that this Canadian report would be traded completely independently from the U.S. reports (which is what you want since it's even different currency pair), with its own mouse clicks. Note that Canadian reports are not released exactly at the same time with U.S. reports (they are usually released slightly earlier) but that's OK because it is set up on a separate group with its own mouse clicks that are appropriate for that report.

As always, there is a possibility of a severe conflict with the Revision number or Unemployment rate. Please see above how to use conflict resolution mode.

Some people also look at US Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) and if there is a conflict there, we might see muted price action. This can also be added to the conflict resolution mode as another "1" "S" report.

Note that a positive deviation of the unemployment rate is bad for USD because it means higher unemployment. However, a positive deviation from the employment change or revision is good for USD because it means more people got new jobs.

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